The President's Analyst

Those who recall the Loma Prieta earthquake, which happened sixteen years ago this October, might also remember how FEMA became a four-letter word in San Francisco's Marina District back in 1989. No one was happy with the slow response from the feds then -- and it seems to be true today in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.

These catastrophes certainly can overwhelm government agencies. The hurricane certainly engulfed former FEMA director Michael Brown, whom President Bush endearingly named "Brownie." That was just before Brownie was washed out of his job with the storm surge. The phrase, "Brownie, you're doing a heck of a job," will stick to Bush as will "Mission accomplished!" when he emphatically declared victory in the war in Iraq a couple of years ago.

Leadership during a crisis is often more style than substance. Mr. Bush has neither. In the hours following the 9/11 attack, Rudy Guiliani was asked how many lives might be lost in the collapse of the Twin Towers. What could he possibly say?

"It is more than we can bear," he stated simply, grimly.

With those words, the hearts of the world went out to him, the city of New York and the entire country.

Guiliani didn't have time to wait for a speechwriter. At the same time, when informed of the 9/11 attack, the president seemed stunned, He was speechless for a few minutes before being spirited away by the Secret Service. It looked like he was grasping for something to say. What was going through his head? "Well, what do you know?" Or "How about that?"

Bush does well in controlled, well-managed, staged presentations. Such as appearing before friendly folks in a flight suit, aboard an aircraft carrier, declaring victory, flags flapping in the breeze, a marching band behind him. Under the circumstances, it was a perverse show of
pageantry. It would have been a nice touch if Bush blew the smoke away from the barrels of a couple of six-shooters before holstering them.

I'm sure the moment made his mom proud. It sure showed his father who's the boss. After all, George H. W. didn't send Saddam hightailing it out of Dodge, formerly known as Baghdad. The kid had to finish the job. But now we're beginning to see why Bush Sr. chose not to invade the Iraqi capital. Welcome to the bottomless pit that other empires have stumbled into over the centuries. Here comes that word again: quagmire.

When John Kennedy went to Walter Reade to visit a dying Douglas MacArthur, the old general warned him, "Don't get involved in a Southeast Asian war." And here comes that word that tragedians and historians also like: hubris.

If Jack Kennedy was the restless, reckless Pyrrhus of ancient Greece, then George Bush the Younger is Oedipus.

Here comes the fun part -- the cheap, sophomoric psychology in which I like to dabble. Remember. I don't report rumors in this column. I just make them up. With all reasonable-sounding dissertations, I call on a source. He's Dr. Cosmo Sostenuto, who has been studying the case of George W. Bush. I understood that Dr. Sostenuto has been associated with the
Langley-Porter psychiatric institute. Later I learned Cosmo was really the night porter at the Hotel Langley in the Tenderloin. A small misunderstanding on my part, but, all the same, it means Dr. Sostenuto has had lots of time to read.

"The invasion of Iraq was clearly an Oedipal gesture that was meant to emasculate the father," Sostenuto asserts. "George W. has never called on his old man for advice on global strategies. He would rather just arm wrestle him."

And what about Bush the Older's role, along with Bill Clinton, in the post-Katrina debacle?
George W. apparently wanted his father and Clinton to appear on television appealing for disaster relief donations while holding mops and buckets in order to humiliate them. George's mom, Barbara, nixed the idea, saying it was a little too much.

"I'll do the humiliating around here," the matriarch announced.

When refugees from New Orleans crowded into the Astrodome, Barbara Bush observed, "This must be a step up for them." George W. clearly has inherited his mother's sensitivity.

Bush family friends who attend the more intimate dinners at the White House on holidays say the experience is unnerving. "The president likes to flick his mashed potatoes off his fork at his father while at the table," says Dr. Sostenuto. "Like every good dysfunctional family, no
one appears to notice, even if the older Bush is splattered with spuds."

On one occasion, the president assailed the First Lady with, "How come you can't cook like my mother?"

"Now George," Laura said solicitously, "you know that I'd have the chef prepare anything you'd like."

"That's what I mean," the president snarled. "I'll bet you can't even make apple pan dowdy."

"George," Laura replied, patting his hand, "you don't even know what apple pan dowdy is."

Well, I'll bet my mother does!"

Barbara smiled sweetly.

Laura surely knows what apple pan dowdy is. After all, she was a librarian. But she decided to let the issue go.

"Get Brownie on the phone!" President Bush the Younger shouted to no one in particular. "Tell him to get everybody in the Astrodome some apple pan dowdy."

But Brownie was not available. He'd already left Washington to see if he could get his old job back at the International Arabian Horse Association. To him, wild horses suddenly looked a whole lot tamer.

Bruce Bellingham, author of "Bellingham by the Bay," is currently working on a coloring book about intelligent design. His e-mail is bruce@brucebellingham.com.